An Empirical Analysis of Unemployment, Human Development Index, and Economic Growth as Determinants of Poverty in West Java Province, 2023

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR), Human Development Index (HDI), and Economic Growth on the poverty rate in regencies and cities of West Java Province in 2023. The research utilizes secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and employs multiple linear regression analysis. The results reveal that HDI has a significant negative effect on poverty, indicating that higher human development contributes to lower poverty rates. Conversely, economic growth shows a significant positive relationship with poverty, suggesting that non-inclusive economic growth can exacerbate poverty. Meanwhile, the open unemployment rate does not significantly affect poverty levels, implying that open unemployment is not always the primary determinant of poverty, particularly in contexts where the informal sector remains active. The coefficient of determination (R²) is 68.7%, indicating that the three variables collectively explain a substantial portion of the regional variation in poverty across West Java. These findings highlight the importance of investing in education, health, and income generation to improve human development, and the need for inclusive economic policies to ensure that growth benefits are equitably distributed. This research is expected to serve as a strategic input for designing more effective and sustainable poverty alleviation policies.