Analisis Jangka Pendek Dan Panjang Imbal Hasil Bitcoin Dalam Lanskap Ekonomi Global

Abstract

Bitcoin has become one of the significant innovations in digital finance with its decentralized characteristics, high price volatility, and potential as “digital gold.” In the context of the global economy, macroeconomic variables such as exchange rates, gold prices, and interest rates are predicted to significantly influence Bitcoin returns, both in the short and long term. However, there is limited research on this relationship, especially in exploring long-term linkages amidst evolving market dynamics. This study uses secondary data from trusted institutions, such as Bank Indonesia and global financial market publications. The analytical method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which allows the identification of short- and long-term relationships between macroeconomic variables and Bitcoin returns. ARDL was chosen for its ability to handle variables with different levels of integration, providing more accurate results in economic analysis. The results show that the exchange rate significantly affects Bitcoin returns, both in the short and long run. Gold price also has a significant impact, where an increase in gold price tends to be followed by a rise in Bitcoin return. Interest rates have a substantial effect in the short run, but the impact diminishes in the long run. The ARDL model also proves the existence of a stable cointegration relationship between the variables.