The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Growth in Uzbekistan

Abstract

Introduction/Main Objectives: analyze the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation in Uzbekistan using time-series and panel data approaches. Background Problems: Inflation remains one of the most pressing macroeconomic challenges in developing economies, as the persistent rise in the general price level affects economic stability, household welfare, and the investment environment. Novelty: The empirical evidence demonstrates that government expenditure expansion, broad money supply growth, and exchange rate depreciation act as major positive inflation drivers, whereas Central Bank key interest rate hikes exert a stabilizing, negative influence. Jointly, fiscal and monetary policy variables account for 74.3% of consumer price variation in Uzbekistan. Research Methods: Quantitative analysis allows for the statistical measurement of macroeconomic variables and estimation of causal relationships using numerical data. This study relies entirely on secondary data in the form of time-series data, covering annual observations for Uzbekistan from 1999 to 2024. Finding/Results: The findings are expected to contribute to the academic literature and provide policymakers with practical insights for strengthening price stability, improving economic reform outcomes, and enhancing long-term macroeconomic resilience