Impact of Trade Wars on Global Economic Growth: Case in Uzbekistan

Abstract

Using both quantitative data analysis and qualitative insights from interviews with economists and policy experts, the study employs a mixed-methods approach.  Key national variables and global trade tensions were correlated using time-series economic data from 2010 to 2024. In parallel, expert interviews helped contextualize statistical findings and provided a deeper understanding of how trade policies and economic responses evolve during periods of global instability. Findings indicate that Uzbekistan’s economic growth is indirectly influenced by trade wars through channels such as reduced demand from major trading partners, volatility in global commodity prices, and shifts in international investment flows. For example, a decline in Chinese industrial demand due to U.S.-China trade tensions can result in lower prices for Uzbekistan’s metal and energy exports. Similarly, geopolitical instability in Russia can affect remittances and trade volumes. These factors collectively place pressure on Uzbekistan’s economic performance, despite strong internal reform efforts.