Spatial Prediction of Built-up Area Expansion (2007 – 2041) as a Flood Resilience Strategy in Sustainable Urban Development

Annisa Nabila Ramdini, Rahmi Idhayanti, Andri Kurniawan, Ahsan Nurhadi

Abstract


Urban land-use transformation has become one of the major drivers of environmental degradation in rapidly developing cities. This study aimed to analyze the dynamics of built-up area expansion and predict future spatial changes in Sukabumi City to support flood resilience and sustainable urban development. The research employed spatial analysis using multi-temporal satellite imagery for 2007, 2014, and 2021, supported by spatial data. The classification process used the Random Forest algorithm, while the Land Change Modeler was applied to project land-use change for 2041 based on ecological and driving-factor scenarios. The results show a significant increase in built-up land development in Sukabumi City from 2007 to 2041, with residential land expanding from 233.66 ha to 2,132.43 ha and industrial land from 36.62 ha to 51.37 ha, indicating a total built-up area increase of approximately 813%. The results showed a continuous increase in built-up areas, mainly concentrated in the central, southern, and western parts of the city, replacing agricultural and green open spaces. The projected map for 2041 indicated that residential areas would continue to expand along major roads, leading to a significant decrease in non-built-up land. The study found increasing flood susceptibility in Sukabumi City by 2041, especially in central and southern areas. A flood resilience strategy is proposed through optimized spatial policies, stronger coordination, improved drainage, and strict land-use control to achieve sustainable and flood-resilient urban development.


Keywords


built-up area, spatial prediction, land-use change, flood risk, sustainable urban development

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.17509/gea.v26i1,%20April.91476

DOI (PDF): https://doi.org/10.17509/gea.v26i1.91476.g36252

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